Possible scenario
Progressive Coalition Splits
20% Chance
The immediate street disruption evolves into a political fight inside Mamdani's governing coalition. Pro-Palestinian activists, Democratic Socialists, Muslim leaders, Jewish anti-Zionist groups, labor allies, and public-safety constituencies disagree over what a New York mayor can realistically do on Israel policy.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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