Possible scenario
Trump Kim Engagement
20% Chance
Trump may use the softer language on Kim Jong Un as a prelude to direct diplomacy, accepting a de facto freeze rather than insisting on near-term denuclearization. This could lower immediate military risk but unsettle Japan and South Korea if they are not fully consulted.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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