Possible scenario
Relief Cooperation Deepens
20% Chance
China and Nepal keep the response technocratic, sharing weather data, road access, and search-and-rescue assets despite sensitivities around Tibet. This outcome reduces the risk of aid bottlenecks and supports a gradual reopening of border trade and mountain tourism.
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.1%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.