Possible scenario
Death Toll Stabilizes
35% Chance
The most likely path is that search teams recover more victims, but the scale of the disaster becomes clearer rather than exponentially worse. Nepal's Home Ministry, Tibet Autonomous Region authorities, and UN OCHA coordinate logistics while weather improves and blocked roads reopen.
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.5%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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