Possible scenario
White House Confrontation
18% Chance
A more disruptive path is that the White House treats Senate resistance as an attack on civilian control and accelerates the reductions. This would deepen mistrust between the Pentagon, Capitol Hill, and senior military leadership, but it would still be a governance shock rather than a broad macro crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -1.0%
- Business Services -0.3%
Tickers
- NOC-1.0%
- -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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