Possible scenario
Congress Slows Cuts
42% Chance
The most likely path is that Senate Armed Services Committee leaders translate their cool reception into oversight language rather than a direct confrontation with the White House. Hegseth keeps the broad reform narrative, but Congress slows implementation through the NDAA, appropriations riders, and reporting requirements.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Business Services +0.1%
Tickers
- LMT+0.4%
- NOC+0.4%
- RTX+0.4%
- GD+0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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