Possible scenario
Roadmap Talks Continue
45% Chance
Iran neither accepts nor rejects the US roadmap, instead using Qatar to clarify sanctions sequencing, enrichment limits, and verification terms. This is the most likely path because Tehran gains leverage by keeping diplomacy alive while Washington and Europe keep UN pressure in reserve.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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