Possible scenario
Roadmap Rejected
20% Chance
Tehran formally rejects the roadmap, saying it front-loads nuclear limits while offering insufficient sanctions relief. The US and European governments then move closer to coordinated penalties, but Russia and China constrain the scope of any UN action.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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