Possible scenario
Interim Nuclear Understanding
25% Chance
Iran signals conditional acceptance of the US roadmap if it includes limited sanctions relief and a defined timetable. A narrow interim arrangement is plausible because both sides have incentives to avoid a UN confrontation while preserving domestic political flexibility.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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