Possible scenario
Retaliatory Escalation
20% Chance
A more damaging Iranian-linked attack forces Washington into a direct military response against launchers, depots, or IRGC command nodes. Both sides attempt to limit escalation, but markets price a materially higher risk of regional conflict and oil disruption.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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