Possible scenario
Limited Regional Fire
30% Chance
Iran or aligned militias test U.S. resolve through limited attacks that fall below the threshold for a broad war. The most likely incidents involve drones, rockets, or short-range missiles aimed at Iraq, Syria, Jordan, or Gulf facilities with partial interception.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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