Possible scenario
Talks Stall Again
19% Chance
The New York meeting fails to bridge differences over Iran’s missile activity, U.S. sanctions relief, and Israel’s freedom to strike Iranian-linked targets. Diplomatic contact does not collapse, but investors reprice some regional risk back into oil and volatility.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.