Possible scenario
Fragile Diplomatic Pause
28% Chance
The New York meeting produces a cautious statement about reducing tensions but no concrete timetable for U.S.-Iran talks. This leaves the diplomatic channel open while preserving uncertainty over Israel, sanctions, and Iran’s missile posture.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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