Possible scenario
Limited U.S. Operation
38% Chance
The most likely military outcome is a bounded U.S. campaign against Iranian nuclear, missile, air-defense, and IRGC targets, designed to avoid a ground war. The leaked three-day structure suggests a pre-planned escalation ladder that the White House can present as limited despite reversing the earlier election-timeline signal.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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