Possible scenario
Schwerin Deadlock Deepens
25% Chance
Fragmentation makes coalition formation difficult, especially if the SPD and BSW clash over Ukraine, migration, or fiscal policy. The CDU's exclusion removes a traditional coalition partner and increases the odds of prolonged caretaker rule or a repeat election.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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