Cordon Sanitaire Holds

The most likely outcome is that all mainstream parties continue to exclude the AfD from government despite its first-place finish. Manuela Schwesig's SPD seeks a workable majority or minority arrangement with BSW, the Left, Greens, or smaller democratic partners while the CDU is absent from the Landtag.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.