Possible scenario
CDU Federal Reckoning
20% Chance
The Mecklenburg result becomes a national CDU crisis despite Friedrich Merz winning the 2025 federal election. The party debates whether its strategy toward the AfD, migration, and eastern Germany has failed.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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