Possible scenario
Tariffs Cap Recovery
28% Chance
Investors focus on the risk that tariff effects predicted by the OECD for 2026 will limit any manufacturing recovery. The Dallas Fed beat is seen as genuine but vulnerable to higher input costs and weaker export competitiveness.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Copper Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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