Possible scenario
Oil Infrastructure Disrupted
20% Chance
A follow-on Houthi strike penetrates Saudi air defenses or causes enough nearby damage to disrupt operations at Yanbu. This is less likely than continued interceptions, but recent attacks on Yanbu and Riyadh show a clear attempt to test Saudi defenses and target oil infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.