Possible scenario
Attacks Stay Contained
40% Chance
Saudi Arabia continues intercepting Houthi missiles and drones with no confirmed damage to Yanbu's oil infrastructure. The most likely near-term path is a tense but contained exchange, because both Riyadh and Tehran have incentives to avoid a direct state-on-state war while the Houthis keep pressure on Saudi energy assets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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