Possible scenario
Logistics Disruption Widens
17% Chance
Repeated alerts or additional debris discoveries keep pressure on border infrastructure between Moldova and Ukraine. The disruption remains regional but begins to affect road freight, humanitarian transport, and insurance costs around the Odesa-Palanca corridor.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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