Possible scenario
Limited US Retaliation
35% Chance
Washington responds with limited strikes on Iranian missile, drone, radar, and naval assets tied to the Gulf attacks, while trying to avoid a full war with Tehran. This is the most likely path because the U.S. would face pressure to restore deterrence and protect shipping without immediately targeting regime leadership.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.0%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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