Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment
20% Chance
Regional mediators, European governments, and China press Iran and the United States to halt attacks around Hormuz. This path remains plausible because Tehran may have demonstrated capability without wanting a sustained direct war that threatens its oil exports and domestic stability.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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