Possible scenario
Framework Mostly Holds
45% Chance
Israel frames the strikes as narrow enforcement actions against Hezbollah positions south of the Litani, while Washington presses both sides to stay inside the ceasefire framework. Hezbollah avoids a large retaliatory barrage, keeping the conflict at a tense but contained level.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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