Possible scenario
Controlled Tit For Tat
30% Chance
The latest strikes become part of a renewed retaliation cycle, but both Israel and Hezbollah avoid all-out war. Washington, Paris, Beirut, and UNIFIL remain engaged, though the ceasefire framework loses credibility on the ground.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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