Possible scenario
Ceasefire Collapses
15% Chance
The US framework fails to restrain the parties, and Israel expands operations to degrade Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah responds with larger rocket and drone attacks, pushing the confrontation toward a new war phase.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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