Possible scenario
Trump Retaliates Publicly
25% Chance
Trump responds much as he did in 2022, attacking Rounds for insufficient loyalty and warning other Republicans against distancing themselves. The exchange reinforces the perception of a divided GOP but does not immediately alter Senate control expectations.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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