Possible scenario
Vendor Scrutiny Widens
18% Chance
The controversy shifts from political messaging to compliance and disclosure questions, including who hired the video maker, who approved the LAPD-chief video, and whether vendor records were properly reported. This would extend the story but still keep it within local campaign-governance channels.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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