Possible scenario
Real Advisories Follow
20% Chance
Although the initial warnings are fake, governments may still judge the security environment in Iran to be worsening after recent missile exchanges and stalled nuclear talks. In this scenario, official advisories or departure recommendations follow within days, validating some of the underlying risk even if the circulated documents were false.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.8%
- Energy +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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