Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment
18% Chance
Kuwait distances itself from the attacker while U.S. and Israeli officials avoid blaming the Kuwaiti state. The case remains a criminal matter rather than a source of Gulf diplomatic escalation.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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