Possible scenario
Trade Friction Escalates
25% Chance
The CNY 5 trillion trade figure reinforces concerns in Washington and Brussels that tariffs have not slowed China's export machine. New investigations or tariff threats become more likely, especially in electric vehicles, batteries, solar equipment, steel, and machinery.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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