Scenario description
Assume that by 2026-11-30, at least two distinct major partner jurisdictions outside the supplied EU auto-settlement and EU rapid import-restriction axes put into effect new or expanded trade-remedy, tariff, market-access, procurement, licensing or customs-enforcement measures that materially target Chinese AI-linked, equipment-manufacturing, integrated-circuit, intermediate-goods, EV, battery, wind-component or closely related exports. The affected products and any duty rates, quotas, exemptions or transition periods are limited to what the official measures state; no additional rate or volume assumptions are made.