Possible scenario
Demand Softens Balance
20% Chance
The shortage risk fades because demand growth undershoots OPEC and JPMorgan expectations. Slower Chinese industrial activity, weak European consumption and higher pump prices reduce the call on crude before inventories reach critical levels.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Down
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.6%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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