Possible scenario
Diplomacy Loses Momentum
20% Chance
The rest dispute may become a practical obstacle to completing the summit agenda even if Xi's health is not critical. This would reduce the likelihood of near-term progress on tariffs, export controls, fentanyl enforcement, aviation orders, or military communications.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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