Possible scenario
Legal Fight Expands
30% Chance
If federal officials do not give a clear assurance, the D.C. Board of Elections or allied voters may seek emergency relief in federal court. This would extend the existing litigation track over armed personnel near voting infrastructure without necessarily stopping the Guard deployment citywide.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.1%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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