Possible scenario
Mainstream Exchange Breakout
40% Chance
Kalshi converts the $40B valuation into a durable legitimacy advantage, using Sequoia’s backing to expand liquidity, compliance staffing, and institutional distribution. The most likely path is rapid growth around the 2026 midterms followed by IPO preparation rather than an immediate sale.
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.6%
- Technology +0.4%
Tickers
- HOOD+0.6%
- ICE+0.4%
- CME+0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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