Possible scenario
Competition Compresses Margins
20% Chance
Kalshi’s valuation attracts larger financial platforms that can bundle event contracts with brokerage, futures, or crypto products. The category grows, but fees and customer-acquisition costs move against Kalshi as prediction markets become a feature rather than a standalone destination.
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Technology +0.2%
Tickers
- HOOD+2.4%
- IBKR+1.2%
- COIN+0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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