Possible scenario
Hawkish Acceleration
25% Chance
The BOJ becomes more concerned that inflation expectations are drifting above target and that wage gains are feeding services prices. Investors bring forward the expected timing and number of rate hikes, creating a sharper near-term risk-off reaction.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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