Possible scenario
Russian Response Cycle
20% Chance
Russia responds politically and militarily to Latvia's longer-range strike procurement, but the base case is rhetoric rather than immediate kinetic escalation. Markets would react only modestly unless Moscow pairs statements with deployments in Kaliningrad or Belarus.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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