Possible scenario
Saudi Retaliation
20% Chance
Riyadh concludes that the attacks require a direct military response and targets Houthi missile and drone infrastructure in Yemen. The outcome raises the geopolitical risk premium, though the initial market effect depends on whether retaliation stays geographically contained.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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