Possible scenario
Race Goes National
18% Chance
Trump's intervention confirms that Republicans view the Texas seat as more vulnerable than expected. Both parties nationalize the contest, with outside groups using the debate dispute to justify heavier spending in a state Democrats usually struggle to make competitive.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
- Healthcare -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.