Possible scenario
State Case Proceeds
50% Chance
The most likely path is that Manhattan prosecutors persuade the court that New York has an independent interest in trying the murder charge despite Mangione's federal guilty plea. The dismissed terror-related counts stay out, but the core second-degree murder case remains viable.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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