Possible scenario
Western Response Hardens
20% Chance
Ukraine uses the destruction of civilian retail sites to press allies for air-defense interceptors, drones and reconstruction support. The likely near-term result is incremental procurement and sanctions talk rather than a decisive policy break.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
Tickers
- RTX+0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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