Possible scenario
Broader Strike Campaign
25% Chance
Russia uses the Epicentr strikes as part of a wider autumn campaign against Ukrainian civilian-facing infrastructure, including retail, logistics and energy assets. This remains below a NATO-escalation threshold but modestly increases geopolitical risk pricing.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Utilities -0.1%
- Energy +0.1%
Tickers
- RTX+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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