Possible scenario
Export Upside Broadens
18% Chance
The Tankan result is taken as confirmation that chip-related exports and capital-goods demand are broadening beyond a narrow set of firms. Investors favor semiconductors, factory automation and machinery names.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.8%
- Industrials +0.7%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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