Possible scenario
Standoff Persists
40% Chance
Iran maintains the Hormuz closure while rejecting uranium shipment abroad, and Washington refuses to meet Tehran's sequencing demands. The most likely near-term path is a tense diplomatic stalemate with limited military posturing, convoy planning, and continued oil-market risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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