Possible scenario
Negotiated De-Escalation
25% Chance
Back-channel mediation produces a sequencing formula that lets both sides claim they avoided capitulation. Iran does not ship uranium abroad immediately, but accepts enhanced monitoring or a freeze while the U.S. pauses some enforcement steps.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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