Possible scenario
Flows Stay Restored
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the reported 20 million bpd peak reflects a real operational reopening of the Strait of Hormuz rather than a one-off surge. U.S. naval escorts, Gulf producer coordination, and pressure from China and India keep Iran from re-closing the channel immediately.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +2.2%
- Energy -2.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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