Possible scenario
Disruption Returns
15% Chance
The restored flow rate proves temporary as Iran or affiliated forces renew pressure around the Strait. This is less likely than continued transit but remains credible given the prior refusal to negotiate and recent closure history.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.