Possible scenario
Political Dispute Grows
15% Chance
The investigation becomes politically sensitive after comments from Benjamin Netanyahu and leaks about Oman's prior ban. Gulf governments try to keep the case procedural, but public disagreement over intelligence-sharing and attribution complicates the messaging.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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